More News Like This Might Sink The Health Care Takeover
by Big Dog on Dec 22, 2009 at 05:19 Political
We already know there are some Democrats who are going to have a real tough time holding onto their Senate seats. Harry Reid is in trouble (I think a slug is out polling him), Christopher Dodd is in trouble, Specter could be in trouble in 2010 and Ben Nelson will be gone when 2012 rolls around. Some of these seats were considered in jeopardy but there are some seats that are considered safe. John Kerry is probably in a pretty safe seat. Let’s face it, the people in the safe seats are the ones who are willing to push the others over Obama’s precipice. It is easy to talk about taking one for the team unless you are taking it.
Byron Dorgan of North Dakota is one of the folks who is considered to be in a safe seat. He is leading his announced Republican opponent by 15 points so he should cruise to victory.
The only problem is that the Republican Governor of the state, John Hoeven, beats him by 22% in the latest poll by Rasmussen. The governor is not in the race as of yet but this kind of polling data might entice him to run.
This might have something to do with the fact that Dorgan supports and has voted for Obamacare when 30% of his state supports it while 64% does not.
A few more polls showing these “safe” seats in peril and there might be a few Democrats willing to jump ship.
Yes, polls like this lead me to believe next November will be very good indeed.
Big Dog Salute to Don Surber
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Tags: byron dorgan, north dakota, rasmussen, safe seat
All good people who love America: stay informed, active, and vocal to defeat socialism, in its most recent disguise, this so called healthcare bill. We hear “How can you deny the helpless coverage they deserve?” These despicably corrupt Yes votes don’t give one tiny damn about the helpless, just their own power. Health care is a gorgeous looking Trojan Horse. When we let it inside the gates, socialism says “Greetings suckers, thank you very much.” and promptly sacks the city.
Health care is not a right it is a good that people are free to purchase.
I love the idea that someone will go bankrupt from a $50,000 medical bill but the same person can finance a $50,000 car.
Let them pay for health care over time. Allow purchase across state lines and quit with the idea that health care is a right. It isn’t, it is a good that people purchase.
Nothing is a right if someone else has to provide it for you.
“I love the idea that someone will go bankrupt from a $50,000 medical bill but the same person can finance a $50,000 car.”
Who are you talking about?
“Yes, polls like this lead me to believe next November will be very good indeed.”
I wouldn’t put money on it yet. You’re still calling elections before the primaries. When matchups are nailed down and bases are equally in gear for the fight you’ll see polls aren’t quite as rosy as you want them to be. If the economy continues moving in the direction it is and we have several months of job growth then it will be an even bigger mountain to climb for the GOP.
The GOP might get away with an anti-Democrat platform like the Dems did with the GOP in 2006 and 2008 but I think you’re imagining some level of mistrust for the Democrats in Congress versus the GOP that just doesn’t exist yet.
The Democrats still poll higher in party ID, their approval in congress is higher than the GOP, a majority thinks Democrats will do better on jobs, Republicans are more blamed for the economic problems than Democrats, etc. I wouldn’t count my chickens before they hatch, but it’s still a long way from November at least for your side.
The Polls favor dems? What are you, polling your sleeper cell? You’re California dreaming.
Rasmussen Reports keeps track of Presidential Approval Rating daily. On The Messiah’s inauguration day, it was 40% strongly approve, 32% strongly disapprove = +8. Dec 23 2009, it’s 26-44 = negative 18, the lowest rating ever = a Strongly Disapprove swing of 26 % of the total likely voting electorate. Let’s take stock. Obama’s lost the independents, now sorry they voted for Anyone But Bush; the farthest left libs who say he’s too conservative on health care and Afghanistan; conservative dems who vow to vote against Obama’s fed funding of abortion, etc etc. In a generic ballot (not specific to any name, just party) GOP beats Dem by 8 points. 55 % think the US economy is in POOR condition. Tea Parties, Acorn scandals, sweetheart mortages deals to Dodd et al, Conyers saying it’s silly to read a healthcare bill before voting on it, corrupt Murtha’s airports to nowhere, Obama’s A-Team granting bonuses post-bailout to AIG execs, publication of emails showing global warming’s been a hoax all along, Dem malfeasance in office, the awakening of the formerly silent majority, seniors up in arms about the immiment slashing of Medicare benefits. Rest assured, there’ll be no Obama coattails in Nov ’10 elections, Dirty Harry for one won’t get back in without arranging major voter fraud. But stay happy in your illlusion, if you so choose. In 11 months, as you complain that Reality Bites, we won’t feel your pain.
Fair: “The Polls favor dems?”>>
DAR
Correct:
“ABC News/Washington Post Poll. Nov. 12-15, 2009.
“Overall, which party — the Democrats or the Republicans — do you trust to do a better job in coping with the main problems the nation faces over the next few years?”
Democrats: 47%
Republicans: 31%
11/12-15/09
Polling report.
Americans have a short memory, but it’s not that short.
D.
Phew, your poll’s numbers smell funny.
Anyone with a heartbeat has to admit it, your guys’s numbers are dropping every day, like an anvil, heh heh. Otherwise, if you’re right and he is so popular, why is it that all his bills (stimulus, climate cap and trade, Obamacare) must be hashed out by dems only in the dead of night behind closed doors, then voted on quick before anyone can read them?
On sources, methods, timeliness, and the smell test — the poll I cited wins.
Your poll, the not-so-unbiased ABC News paid a telecom who just polled cell phone customers, an odd demographic, as it includes our 10 year old kids. The poll I cited was by a pure polling organization, actually polling likely voters, and they’ve repeated that same poll daily for years so they can actually chart the trends. The info I cited was current Dec 23 the same day as my comment. Yours was a one shot deal done 6 weeks earlier by a telecom company.
6 weeks? re-read my first paragraph.
And at the end of the day, believing ABC News Wash Post– really? They might’ve polled the newsroom hacks. Their phony objectivity is laughable. Even Edsall, liberal former Wash Post guy now a prof at Columbia School of Journalism, can see it
http://www.mrc.org/biasalert/2009/20091012124908.aspx
My numbers are confirmed and certified by every day’s headlines. We’d only expect to see yours tucked away in the smug editorial pages of the Post or the NYT when they’re preaching to the choir.
FairM: “The poll I cited was by a pure polling organization,>>
DAR
“Pure” polling organization? That’s funny.
FairM: they’ve repeated that same poll daily for years>>
DAR
The poll I referenced has been done, with the same question, since 1992.
FairM: info I cited was current Dec 23 the same day>>
DAR
That’s nice, but not relevant. I was really hoping for something better than smearing ABC News, your poll is “six weeks” old and “the poll I cited wins.”
D.
—————
Republican Popularity Plummeting As They Continue Boarding The Crazy Train
Excerpt:
“The future does not hold much hope for the GOP when the response of various demographics are taken into account. America is becoming increasingly multi-cultural, and support for the GOP amongst minorities is at the bottom of the barrel. In 1980, 32% of the electorate consisted of white Democratic voters. That number was little changed in 2008, with 32% of the electorate consisting of whites voting for Obama. But in 1980 only 9% of the electorate were nonwhite Carter voters, whereas 21% of the electorate were nonwhite Obama voters last year.
As the GOP has thrown increasingly bizarre, frenzied, and sometimes racially motivated accusations at Obama, the positive view of the GOP has seen a steady and drastic reduction. In January, 40% of whites held a positive view of the GOP. Today, that figure is 25%. In January, 20% of Latinos held a positive view of the GOP. Today, that figure is 3%. Amongst voters under thirty years of age, that positive view of the GOP has plummeted from 27% to 4%.”
Link
(From September! Ancient history!)
The tea Party outpolls both the Republican AND the Democrat parties- but if there was an alignment with an existing party, the Demmies would lose, because the Tea Party is more conservative than not, while the Demmie party has gone all socialist on the Nation.
If the economy keeps going down? Jobs are not there and the economic numbers were adjusted down for last month. Home sales fell 11% and they expected an increase. There are people who have been hired for Christmas but they will be out of work in January.
The inflation will hit.
The point is, we buy all kinds of things on time, why not health care or insurance?
Why do we assume people should not be expected to pay medical bills?
I don’t know what part of the economy you think is going down except maybe job losses. GDP is increasing. The stock market indexes are increasing. New home sales weren’t as good as they need to be for a strong recovery but they are better than Nov 2008 and are contributing to at least a weak recovery.
The economy is recovering and in 2010 your side will be stuck wishing the public cared about deficits and national debt instead of whether or not they work to feed their families or afford medical bills.
No Adam, the public is worried about deficit and debt and if they are still worrying about jobs and feeding their families then it is all on your side.
People will be worried about that because of the problems of a failed stimulus. Debt and deficit will lead to no one buying our debt. Inflation, big problem.
There was a slight uptick which is part of a W shaped recession.
Talk to me next year and let me know how those numbers are.
Big Dog:
I shouldn’t say the public isn’t concerned about debt and deficit, just that they are more concerned with the short term state economy, their healthcare, and the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan long before deficits.
The deficits are just going to erode the long term strength of the economy. This is something most people don’t understand or care about. What they care about and what they vote for is related to whether they are working and keeping their family healthy and secure. If the Democrats fail to tackle those issues correctly it will be a brutal election.
I challenge the Republicans to create the kind of bloodbath they want by making the debt and deficit an issue since the public still remembers how bad the GOP was on those two points just 4 years ago.
I see no way the Dems can really maintain their level of control but it would be a massive change election for the GOP to win 40 more seats than the Dems in the House and gain 11 seats in the Senate. Controlling either branch of Congress in 2011 will be a hard thing to achieve.
FairMinded:
“You forgot, or never knew, the stock market you’re happy about now, wiped out a third of its entire value in Obama’s first 4 months.”
You are right, I never knew that because you’re telling a lie. I do appreciate though how you say “facts are funny things” and then go on to invent reality for yourself.
The stock market had declined since October 2007 when the recession started and by the 5th week of Obama’s term the market bottomed out. By the end of the four months you talk about the market had exceeded the level it was at when Obama took office.
Adam, another poor soul who slept through Economics 101. Here on Planet Earth, light years from wherever it is you are, the US economy is certainly not wonderful.
Look at the price of gold much? Straight up 700 to 1200 since your guy ascended his throne.
Facts are funny things. 1. You forgot, or never knew, the stock market you’re happy about now, wiped out a third of its entire value in Obama’s first 4 months. The recent rise is essentially just trying to get back to even. 2. a rising stock market is merely a leading indicator, and not a cause, of any recovery.
No govt in history ever spent its way into prosperity, but your guy — the megalomaniac who gushed “We are the Ones we’ve been waiting for” — but somehow can’t manage to string 3 words together without a teleprompter, he’s gonna git ‘er done, right?
Please see my comment above pointing out your lie.
Adam, What courage. Surprisingly sharp tongue for such a dull wit.
Facts, here on Planet Earth
S&P 500
11-04-2008 1,005.74
02-09-2009 676.53
12-23-2009 1,120.59
pardon typo,
2nd date is 03-09-2009
Fair: “…stock market… wiped out a third of its entire value in Obama’s first 4 months.>>
DAR
What a bizarre and misinformed argument.
Fair: The recent rise is essentially just trying to get back to even.>>
DAR
The fact that under Obama it has vastly exceeded getting “back to even,” demolishes your argument. Let’s review.
On January 20, Obama inherited a DOW of 8,077.
Today it’s at 10,520.
That’s a net increase of 30%, in less than a year. An increase of 2,443 points.
In comparison, Bush, in eight years, in his stunning and disastrous mis-achievement, took the market DOWN 20%.
That’s a decrease of 2,523.
Interesting. It took less than a year for the market to GROW under a Democrat by almost exactly the same amount it took a republican eight years to SHRINK it.
Wow.
In comparison, Clinton took it up 330%.
(For the record, up is good, down is bad.)
If Bush’s market had at grown like Clinton’s, he would have left the market around 33,000. Instead he left it at 8,077.
Link.
Fair: “a rising stock market is merely a leading indicator, and not a cause, of any recovery.”>>
DAR
Well then Obama’s market with it’s 30% increase in less than a year, (and 60% increase since March) is a PROFOUND indicator of recovery. Thanks for pointing this out.
And this is all no big surprise to those who follow such things. The stock market has consistently done better under Democrats, whether in the White house or congress. Note:
“…since 1900, Democratic presidents have produced a 12.3 percent annual total return on the S&P 500 compared with an 8% return from the Republicans. Stock Trader’s Almanac examined Dow appreciation and found similar numbers (13.4 percent versus 8.1 percent). [1]
…the New York Times examined how an investment of $10,000 would have grown under each party during this time. They found that a $10,000 investment in the S.& P. 500 would have grown to $11,733 if invested under Republican presidents only. If we exclude Herbert Hoover’s disastrous depression numbers the growth rises to $51,211. The same investment made during Democratic presidents only, would have grown to $300,671.[2]
Does having a Republican Congress help the market? No, the record shows that a Democratic controlled Senate provided a higher return and a Democratic controlled House also enjoyed a higher return. [3]
Link
Adam, might not see the takeover though it is possible. The only thing Republicans really need to stop this insanity is a seat in the Senate and they should pick up a few which will take away the filibuster proof majority.
That will stop any legislation and it is why the Dems are rushing to pass everything. The attitude is pass it now and fix it later which is poor leadership.
Obama said it about Bush, the deficit was a sign of poor leadership. Now he is living it.
We shall see but I do not believe the economy will be in good shape and with the taxes from any health care bill (which might not make it past reconciliation) will kick in immediately and that will include people under $250k. That will sink the Dems.
Has anyone heard of this polling place Darrel cites?
Since you believe polls run the nation then why are you in favor of health care reform being pushed. Every poll shows the public opposes it:
RCP Average 12/8 – 12/20 — 38.4 51.0 Against/Oppose +12.6
Quinnipiac 12/15 – 12/20 1616 RV 36 53 Against/Oppose +17
CNN/Opinion Research 12/16 – 12/20 1160 A 42 56 Against/Oppose +14
Rasmussen Reports 12/18 – 12/19 1000 LV 41 55 Against/Oppose +14
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 12/11 – 12/14 1008 A 32 47 Against/Oppose +15
Associated Press/GfK 12/10 – 12/14 1001 A 36 44 Against/Oppose +8
Gallup 12/11 – 12/13 1025 A 46 48 Against/Oppose +2
ABC News/Wash Post 12/10 – 12/13 1003 A 44 51 Against/Oppose +7
Pew Research 12/9 – 12/13 1504 A 35 48 Against/Oppose +13
FOX News 12/8 – 12/9 900 RV 34 57 Against/Oppose +23
RCP
66% favor smaller government and lower taxes and 68% favor offshore drilling. So if polls lead the way let’s get to these.
And since Republicans lead in nearly all major categories I say that you might be wrong.
Voters remain more confident in Republicans than in Democrats this month on virtually all of the key electoral issues regularly tracked by Rasmussen Reports. But that confidence is not quite as strong as a month ago when the GOP led on all 10.
Republicans lead in economy by 12 points.
Bigd: “Has anyone heard of this polling place Darrel cites?”>>
DAR
It’s not a “polling place” you buffoon.
Bigd: “Since you believe polls run the nation…”
DAR
I don’t believe that at all. But when someone posts crap, or shows they can’t even read or comprehend their own material, it gets pointed out.
Bigd: “RCP link>>
DAR
Your “RCP” link goes to this thread. So while I can’t check your ridiculous claim that: “every poll shows the public opposes it [health care reform being pushed], it’s safe to say that none, not a SINGLE one of those polls actually asked that question.
It’s safe to say there is fairly strong opposition to this specific bill, but the trend in that chart of polls just shows that you and your ilk were fairly successful over the last few months in spending millions in spreading blatant lies and howling misinformation about an immense bill and complex issue. Congratulations. It is after all, what you do. That blip will swing back shortly and matters not in the least if it doesn’t. Remember, this is representative democracy and our representatives have made a big new bill that you will indeed learn to live with.
D.
————–
“Fifty percent (50%) of voters say the country’s economic problems are due to the recession that began under the Bush administration. Forty-two percent (42%) blame President Obama’s policies.” –your source above
The market went way up under Bush, higher than it has been under Obama. It went down under a Democratically controlled Congress and its poor fiscal policies.
You can spin all you want but it is wrong. Unemployment under Obama 10%, under Bush half of that.
Look at the markets and see who controlled Congress during the ups and downs and you will see the trend.
Bigd: The market went way up under Bush, higher than it has been under Obama.>>
DAR
The market has increased more since the low of March (3,894) than it did if you go from Bush’s day one to his brief highest peak (increase of 3,434). Bush’s market record SUCKED harder than any other modern president’s record has SUCKED and he set the all-time record for biggest drop in the history of the stock market. But that’s nothing new, here’s another study, covering 72 years, showing the:
stock market performs better and tends to be less volatile when Democrats are in power.
It’s not even close.
Bigd: “Unemployment under Obama 10%, under Bush half of that.”>>
DAR
We’ll see how Obama does once he gets us out of the ditch Bush drove us in… but you REALLY don’t want to talk about Bush and jobs. The record is clear. This article from the Wall Street Journal gives it away in the title:
Bush On Jobs: The Worst Track Record On Record
Excerpt:
President George W. Bush [had] almost 22 months of recession during his 96 months in office.
…The Bush administration created about three million jobs (net) over its eight years, a fraction of the 23 million jobs created under President Bill Clinton’s administration and only slightly better than President George H.W. Bush did in his four years in office.
Here’s a look at job creation under each president since the Labor Department started keeping payroll records in 1939…
The current President Bush, once taking account how long he’s been in office, shows the worst track record for job creation since the government began keeping records.”
Bush On Jobs: The Worst Track Record On Record –WSJ.
This is consistent with his achievements in other categories.
Considering it was the Dems that helped the DJ average to tank as it did, I could say that the Demmies haven’t even gotten us back to even yet- they are operating under a handicap of no intelligence- witness ANYONE in the Administration today, and you have people with the most tenuous grasp on reality that we have EVER had in ANY admin.
No Democrats had that time with bad jobs. It all went down hill once they took control back.
Don’t forget it.
And Darrel, you can blame it on Bush but we are not listening. It all belongs to Obambi…
You keep cutting and pasting but you make no sense.
If Democrats create so many jobs why are their unemployment numbers higher. Except for Bush and Clinton who had the same UE numbers (though you morons said Clinton’s job numbers were great and Bush’s terrible).
Is this like the homeless phenomenon? When a Republican is in office there are hundreds of thousands of homeless and their pictures are int he paper and on the news. When a Dem gets elected homelessness is immediately cured and it is never again reported.
All I know is my savings and investments did well under the last guy and no so well under this guy.
If the Democrats did not have their big money guys manipulating the market to influence the election and if Democrats would have listened to Bush about Fannie/Freddie then we might not have had this problem.
However, until the market was manipulated McCain was ahead in the polls. They needed to create that crisis and Obama owns it.
Bigd: “If Democrats create so many jobs why are their unemployment numbers higher.”>>
DAR
They’re not higher, they’re lower.
“[statistics back to 1959] Democratic presidents have a better record on inflation (averaging 3.13 percent compared with 3.89 percent for Republicans) and on unemployment (5.33 percent versus 6.38 percent). Unemployment went down in the average Democratic year, up in the average Republican one.”
Democratic Superiority, by the Numbers
D.
—————-
“In the last fifty years, there have been ten Presidents–five Democrats and five Republicans–and the Democrats place first, second, third, fourth and fifth [in new job creation]… the chance of that occurring randomly is 1 in 252…”
–“We’re Right, They’re Wrong,” (1996) James Carville, pg. 13
Was this before or after they changed the way they count job creation? Is it part of the math that includes counting a “saved” job?
Figures often beguile me, particularly when I have the arranging of them myself; in which case the remark attributed to Disraeli would often apply with justice and force: “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics.”
– Mark Twain’s Own Autobiography: The Chapters from the North American Review
Carville is a retard- if he breeds, there will be a new pest for exterminators to have to contend with, because I will bet he breeds like a cockroach.
Right Darrel. Republican work spills into Democrats and they get the credit and Democrats spill into Republicans and they get the blame.
Carville is a moron.