The Obama Phenomena
Feb 20, 2008 Political
Barack Obama won Wisconsin and Hawaii yesterday and extended his delegate lead by 20. The Clinton campaign is in a downward spiral after losing 10 contests in a row. Why is Obama beating the woman who would be Queen (from Drudge)?
Obama Won:
Women (51-49)
All age groups under 65
All education levels
All regions of the state — urban, suburban and rural
Voters without college degrees (50-48)
Democrats (50-49)
Whites (53-46)
White men (59-38)
Voters who decided in the last week (58-42)Won or tied voters of all income levels
Tied among white women
Tied among union members
Tied among union households
It would appear as if just about every demographic is moving toward Obama and leaving Clinton behind. Her firewall states are Texas and Ohio. She might win Texas though Obama is inching closer. The large Hispanic population gives her the edge but the Texas method of dividing delegates might favor Obama. it is based upon turn out from the last election and Hispanics did not show up in large numbers in 2004.
There are few states left with huge Hispanic populations (the only demographic Clinton seems to be able to hold) and certainly there are no populations large enough to counter the defections from the other groups. Clinton is in trouble because even though the possibility of a brokered convention exists, there are still enough outstanding delegates to give Obama the win outright. Clinton’s only hope is a brokered convention or the theft of committed delegates.
It would appear now that if Clinton ends up the nominee there will be a riot within the DNC. She either has to win it outright or the DNC risks being torn apart by infighting.
They must also be weary of awarding the nomination to Clinton and having Obama decide to run as an independent. He and Clinton would split votes and the Republican would likely win the presidency.
Howard Dean will have a huge ulcer when this is all said and done.
Tags: Clinton, convention, delegate, dnc, Obama