The Obama Phenomena
Feb 20, 2008 Political
Barack Obama won Wisconsin and Hawaii yesterday and extended his delegate lead by 20. The Clinton campaign is in a downward spiral after losing 10 contests in a row. Why is Obama beating the woman who would be Queen (from Drudge)?
Obama Won:
Women (51-49)
All age groups under 65
All education levels
All regions of the state — urban, suburban and rural
Voters without college degrees (50-48)
Democrats (50-49)
Whites (53-46)
White men (59-38)
Voters who decided in the last week (58-42)Won or tied voters of all income levels
Tied among white women
Tied among union members
Tied among union households
It would appear as if just about every demographic is moving toward Obama and leaving Clinton behind. Her firewall states are Texas and Ohio. She might win Texas though Obama is inching closer. The large Hispanic population gives her the edge but the Texas method of dividing delegates might favor Obama. it is based upon turn out from the last election and Hispanics did not show up in large numbers in 2004.
There are few states left with huge Hispanic populations (the only demographic Clinton seems to be able to hold) and certainly there are no populations large enough to counter the defections from the other groups. Clinton is in trouble because even though the possibility of a brokered convention exists, there are still enough outstanding delegates to give Obama the win outright. Clinton’s only hope is a brokered convention or the theft of committed delegates.
It would appear now that if Clinton ends up the nominee there will be a riot within the DNC. She either has to win it outright or the DNC risks being torn apart by infighting.
They must also be weary of awarding the nomination to Clinton and having Obama decide to run as an independent. He and Clinton would split votes and the Republican would likely win the presidency.
Howard Dean will have a huge ulcer when this is all said and done.
Tags: Clinton, convention, delegate, dnc, Obama
Between Barack and a Hard Place
Feb 15, 2008 Political
Hillary Clinton finds herself in deeper trouble as two more primaries loom on the horizon prior to her firewall states of Texas and Ohio. The latest polls from Texas show that Obama has now taken a lead there and only trails Hillary by 2% among Hispanic voters. That vote was Hillary’s ace in the hole and if she does not have a larger lead in the demographic the fat lady will be warming up her vocal chords.
The saving grace for Hillary is that a large number of Super Delegates are from the old Democratic establishment. They are a bunch of old white guys who have a lot of sway within the party and many of them are not elected to an office so they will not have to worry about the wrath of the electorate, at least not as far as they are personally concerned.
Hillary is basically toast as far as the primaries go. She cannot catch Obama and neither of them will earn enough delegates to win the nomination outright. Hillary stands to gain the lion’s share of delegates from Florida and Michigan should the DNC relent and allow those delegates to be seated. This is seen as unlikely since the events were not properly contested and if anyone wants to talk about disenfranchising a black guy, this would be the ultimate event to do so.
A more likely event is that the uncommitted Super Delegates will go against the will of the people and cast their vote for Hillary thus giving her the nomination over the person who received the most votes from the electorate. There are some SDs who are switching their committed vote from Hillary to Obama but there will not be enough of them to offset the old establishment should they decide that Hillary should get the nod. For all their claims of diversity the overwhelming number of SDs are old white men and they just might not like the idea of running a black guy for the top spot.
Either event is likely to throw the Democratic Party into a state of turmoil. If Hillary is selected the black voter will finally understand the betrayal that has been the Democratic Party. Blacks have been taken for granted for years but every election cycle the Democrats promise them the world only to forget about them until the next election. Trillions of dollars have been spent on the war on poverty and many are no better off than they were four decades ago when the war began. If ever there was an indication that we should pull out of a war, that would be it. The black voters finally see one of their own reach the pinnacle with a chance to make history by being elected the first black president in the history of this country. If they get screwed they might stay home or cast protest votes for the Republican nominee. In any event, maybe they will finally understand what has been happening all those years they ignored the signs that they were being used.
On the other hand, if Obama is selected the women voters, Hillary’s largest demographic, might feel betrayed by the old white men and take out their frustrations in a similar fashion. Hillary was supposed to win, it was her turn. There were a lot of women who got excited when she entered the race and they are still strongly supporting her so much so that Oprah Winfrey, one of the most successful women in the world, received a great deal of grief and talk of betrayal because she chose to back Obama. These are two very determined groups and they make up a huge portion of the electorate. Ticking them off will not be good for the Democratic Party.
Howard Dean is losing sleep at night thinking about the possibility of a brokered convention. He might be a whack job but he is not stupid. He realizes all too well that these scenarios could play out just as I described and tear his party apart. If it happens it will only lend credence to the saying that the Democrats always find ways to lose. The best he can hope for is for one of them to drop out but that does not appear likely. He can hope that one will wrap up the nomination but that appears just as unlikely so it will be down to the convention and the nightmare of negotiations. Even if they persuade Clinton and Obama to take a deal, say where she is the nominee and he is the VP (or vice versa), they run the risk of alienating the supporters of the one who gets to play second fiddle. I can hear it now “why does the black man have to be second to a white woman” or “why does she have to be second to a man, isn’t a woman good enough to be first?”
These things are all possible and no one can guarantee that either would accept the terms. Would you want to be Obama and be third in line behind Hillary and Bill? The Democrats have a long hard road ahead of them and this is not going to be easy. In addition to risking losing voters they need to worry about losing control of Congress. If they tick off enough of their base those voters might stay away or vote for Republicans for Congress. If the DNC is not careful it could lose it all.
That, of course, is a worse case scenario but it is not out of the realm of possibility. The Democrats have a way of mucking things up and they seem to have done so this time. The SDs were supposed to be helpful but now it appears as if the whole idea might have been a bad one.
Regardless of what happens this will be fun to watch. I personally hope this goes to a brokered convention. I might actually watch it just to see the comedy unfold. My party is pretty uneventful so I might as well enjoy the antics on the other side…
Others with interesting posts:
Diary of the Mad Pigeon, Rosemary’s Thoughts, Nuke Gingrich, Faultline USA, third world county, 123beta, The Crazy Rants of Samantha Burns, The World According to Carl, Shadowscope, Pirate’s Cove, The Pink Flamingo, Celebrity Smack, Cao’s Blog, Dumb Ox Daily News, and The Yankee Sailor, thanks to Linkfest Haven Deluxe.
Tags: brokered convention, Clinton, dnc, Obama, super delegates
Hostages Taken at Clinton NH Campaign HQ
Nov 30, 2007 Political
A man claiming to have a bomb strapped to him has taken control of Hillary Clinton’s campaign headquarters in New Hampshire. He has an unknown number of volunteers as hostages but has released a woman with a baby. The person is demanding to speak to Hillary Clinton who is in DC. She was scheduled to speak at the DNC Fall meeting but canceled her appearance.
I don’t know what this person hopes to accomplish but no matter how this ends it will not have a good outcome for him. We can only pray that the innocent people working there are not harmed.
There has been speculation that it is someone from the Free State Project but that is unlikely since those folks are usually pacifists. Perhaps it is a member of the media who is tired of the problems in accessing the candidate.
Maybe the guy is a Clinton plant in order to gin up sympathy and show she is a target because of her “experience.”
In any event, I pray the folks there are released unharmed and this guy gets the help he needs from behind jail cell bars.
UPDATE: The hostages have been released and the suspect is believed to be a local resident with mental health issues.
UPDATE 2: All of Clinton’s campaign offices in Iowa have been closed.
Others with similar items:
Outside the Beltway, Perri Nelson’s Website, AZAMATTEROFACT, 123beta, Right Truth, Adam’s Blog, Cao’s Blog, Leaning Straight Up, The Bullwinkle Blog, The Amboy Times, Chuck Adkins, Pursuing Holiness, Adeline and Hazel, Nuke’s, Diary of the Mad Pigeon, Allie is Wired, third world county, Woman Honor Thyself, The World According to Carl, Pirate’s Cove, Blue Star Chronicles, The Pink Flamingo, CommonSenseAmerica, Right Voices, The Yankee Sailor, and Church and State, thanks to Linkfest Haven Deluxe.
Tags: bomb, campaign headquarters, dnc, Hillary Clinton, hostages, mental health issues, pacifists, wmur
Hillary’s Writers Go On Strike
Nov 28, 2007 Political
The DNC has canceled the the last of its fall debates because of a pending writer’s strike at CBS. The Writers Guild and the network have been without a strike for about two years so the union decided that this would be a good time to disrupt things. Queen Hillary had already indicated that she would not cross the picket line and the DNC, beholden to the unions to supply votes and thugs for events, decided not to show some courage and decide that they should not allow the union to disrupt things.
However, this is a good thing for Hillary Clinton since she has been dropping in the polls and did not need another melt down so close to the primaries. She would melt down because the writers would not be there to write for her and CBS might pick someone who did not have a planted question to ask.
Lost in all this is the effect on poor Katie Couric who was set to moderate this debate. I know she was just looking for an opportunity to bat her eyes at Clinton in admiration and then ask questions that would make Wolf Blitzer look like Stalin.
In the words of Dr. Evil: Boo-frickity-hoo
Source:
The Politico
Tags: dnc, dr evil, Hillary Clinton, katie couric, politico, primaries, queen hillary, stalin, wolf blitzer