Likely vs. Registered Voters
Apr 5, 2012 Political
We are overwhelmed with polls about everything and right now in time the polls all deal with the 2012 election. Many polls show Barack Obama beating Mitt Romney (the presumptive nominee) by a few points and this is causing despair among those who want Obama defeated.
Dick Morris reviews the substance of these polls in his latest video.
Morris points out that the polls showing Obama winning are polls of registered voters which Morris says are cheaper to conduct.
He claims the real polls that matter are among likely voters and those polls show Romney and Obama neck in neck.
But Morris goes further to point out that he has analyzed polls going back to 1964 and the results show that the challenger (facing an incumbent president) gets the undecided voters.
His claim is that about 80% of the undecided go for the challenger and this means Romney is actually up by about four points. Morris points out that if people are undecided about you after you have had most of a term in office it does not bode well.
He likens it to asking your spouse “will you be married to the same person next year” and getting the answer, I’m undecided. He says that would not be good.
In any event, the polls are not necessarily what they appear to be at first glance.
The reality though, is that the only poll that matters is the one on Election Day so make sure to get out and vote.
Cave canem!
Never surrender, never submit.
Tags: election day, likely voter, Obama, polls, registered voter, romney
When Dem Pollsters Sound The Clarion
Jul 10, 2010 Political
Ignoring the Kos polls that Kos admitted were manipulated to give him the results he was looking for, we can start looking at the polls for the upcoming elections. The Kos polls were over the top but not too terribly far off from many MSM backed polls of the past few years. The pollsters typically find ways to skew results to make things more positive for Democrats because controlling the message is important to the Socialists and Marxists in government and their sock puppets in the media. The pollsters can swing public opinion by skewing polls.
So when polls conducted by Democrat supporters start to show things are bad, they are.
A poll done by James Carville’s firm shows the Republicans up by 6% in the generic ballot (48%-42%). This is the generic ballot. The local races are beginning to look bad for some long time Democrats. Boxer, Reid and Feingold are in trouble in the polls and could very well end up unemployed after November.
Another interesting thing from the same Carville poll is that 55% of respondents said that Socialist was an accurate way to describe Barack Hussein Obama.
And Obama is losing his appeal. Not long ago he was filling venues with his lofty talk of hope and change and how he would do this or that and people swooned over him, fainted, screamed and followed just to touch his robes. Now his presence cannot fill a venue one tenth the size he has in the past and prices have to be reduced to induce people to attend.
From Yes We Can to Oh No You Didn’t in a year and a half…
Never surrender, never submit.
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Tags: democrat, james carville, Obama, polls, republican, socialist
Democrats Push Forward Despite Danger
Mar 13, 2010 Political
The Democrats are moving along at full speed in order to ram the health care takeover down our throats (though it might be more appropriate to indicate they are ramming it in another body part considering what they are trying to do to us). Nancy Pelosi is busing tightening leashes and Barack Obama has postponed his mini vacation for a few days to help usher this thing along.
[note]I hope he has as much success as he did getting the Olympics in Chicago and Democrats elected in Virginia, New Jersey, and Massachusetts.[/note]
I told you before that this is not about health and it is not about care, it is about control. It is also something that Democrats must pass. They need this to secure a win on a signature issue for Obama. Democrats push forward at their own peril because, by and large, Americans do not want this. The reasons are many including those who do not want it because it is not liberal enough, those who do not like certain provisions and those who do not want any of it because they believe government does not belong in the health care business.
No matter what the reason, the opposition is too loud to ignore. The Democrats However, are good at doing just that. Last August Americans came out in force to town hall meetings and voiced their objections. The Democrat’s answer was to stop having town hall meetings.
Patrick H. Caddell and Douglas E. Schoen, two Democrat pollsters, are warning of Armageddon if the Democrats pass this monstrosity over the objections of the public. They freely admit that Democrats stand to lose seats in the midterm elections (a historical trend) but go on to say that Democrats will lose many more if they pass it.
Their blind persistence in the face of reality threatens to turn this political march of folly into an electoral rout in November. In the wake of the stinging loss in Massachusetts, there was a moment when the president and the Democratic leadership seemed to realize the reality of the health-care situation. Yet like some seductive siren of Greek mythology, the lure of health-care reform has arisen again.
~snip~
However, a solid majority of Americans opposes the massive health-reform plan. Four-fifths of those who oppose the plan strongly oppose it, according to Rasmussen polling this week, while only half of those who support the plan do so strongly. Many more Americans believe the legislation will worsen their health care, cost them more personally and add significantly to the national deficit. Never in our experience as pollsters can we recall such self-deluding misconstruction of survey data.
The writing is on the wall. Despite the claims that people like the bill when they know more about it, the reality is people do not like it and do not want it. Democrats proceed at their own peril.
The authors indicate that people agree that reform is needed and that some parts of the plan are appealing but that the plan in total is not liked. This has not stopped Democrats from moving on, full speed ahead. They continue to claim people will like it once they see what is in it (which we apparently cannot do until it is passed). This is untrue because people already know what is in it and they do not like it.
As Caddell and Schoen state; “…the battle for public opinion has been lost.”
But this will not stop Democrats from walking off a cliff.
And the bad thing for them is that if this does not pass, at this point in the game, those who voted for it will be in real trouble for backing a loser and against the wishes of those they are supposed to represent.
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Tags: caddell, deception, health care, Obama, polls, public support, schoen
Poll Numbers Tell The Tale
Aug 10, 2009 Political
The Pretender King’s numbers are coming in- I mean the polls are taken hourly, like a critical patient’s pulse, and the pulse is getting weaker all the time. Good. This is why the Resident wants to push bills through fast, constantly breaking his pledge of “transparency” with all the recidivism of a serial child- molester unable to control his urges.
Not that I can blame him, as distasteful as his bills are, not to mention deceitful to the American people. I mean, if he wanted to (and he should have), he could have settled the economy much sooner, and indeed, it can, and should be argued that he should not have done anything else until that little niggling problem was fixed.
After all, as the Ford Motor Company used to say, That was Job One. And it has become a job he has failed at- I say that with complete confidence that I am right, because only in a Hussein- World could you lose 247,000 jobs in a month and claim a victory because the “unemployment” figures falsely show a .1% “improvement”. This is because of all the people who have quit looking for jobs, and thus are not counted in the numbers.
Mr. Walker, who as president of the nonpartisan Peter G. Peterson Foundation since 2008 has spearheaded an effort to raise public awareness about the country’s long-term fiscal problems, said that the American people are “ahead of their elected officials” in understanding the need to rein in spending before expanding health care coverage.
“They get it,” he said. “Costs are out of control, and they threaten the future of this country. And you cannot reduce cost by expanding coverage. That’s an oxymoron.”
washingtontimes.com
Oh yeah, we get it. The American people are not as dumb as the Liberal Left would like to hope. They were counting on the Silent Majority staying compliant and focused on their flat- screen TVs. Sadly for the socialist left, this is not to be.
A majority, 57 percent, said health care reform should be abandoned if it will “significantly” add to the deficit. Mr. Obama has promised that any reform will not add to the budget imbalance, but 72 percent of the registered voters surveyed by Quinnipiac said they did not think Mr. Obama would be able to deliver on that vow.
A National Public Radio poll of 850 likely voters in late July showed that 48 percent thought the president’s policies have increased the federal deficit and done little to slow job loss, while 45 percent said Mr. Obama has blunted the recession and set a foundation for recovery. The poll also showed 47 percent opposition to the Obama health care reforms in Congress, with 42 percent support
washingtontimes.com
The polls are growing against the Resident and his power- grab policies. While I think a solid majority of people can say that there could be improvement in the Healthcare industry, there is no need to dismantle the whole show, especially if it adds to the debt without fixing the economy first. Many people do not know that there is a provision in HR 3200, in which the government is authorized to reach into your bank account electronically to pay for the “Healthcare”. That sounds overly intrusive to me, but I am just that way, I guess.
A Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll of 1,011 adults on July 30 showed that 42 percent thought the current health care reforms were a bad idea, while 36 percent thought them a good idea. More surprisingly, Republicans in Congress were more trusted to fix the budget deficit by a 31 percent to 25 percent margin, a drastic turnaround from January, when Democrats held the edge by a margin of 42 percent to 20 percent.
washingtontimes.com
How strange- Republicans are more trusted when it comes to money- duh! Perhaps because the Liberals in government have shown that they neither know the value of the money they have been entrusted with, nor value the trust they had from the American people. Ignorant on both counts, and snobbish to boot. Not a good attitude.
So they call the people in the Town Halls “Unpatriotic”, and “Nazis”- way to go, Botox Betty. Think you can alienate some more people? Quite possibly, as it is my opinion that the Botox is affecting her brain. How else to explain her behavior?
“What’s going on is there is increasing concern, which in some cases has turned to outrage, with how far out of touch and out of control Washington has become,” Mr. Walker said.
Grover Norquist, president of Americans for Tax Reform, also noted that polling was a problem for the Democrats’ attempts to delegitimize their opposition.
“If the polls were showing 80 percent support for Obama’s health care plan, if the polls were showing increasing support for Obama personally, then you could say, ‘Hey where are these people coming from?’ ” Mr. Norquist said. “But every poll shows that support for his plan or what they’re talking about doing on health care is plummeting, personal support for Obama is plummeting.”
washingtontimes.com
Yes, the polls are sliding down, but will this , combined with the town hall meetings be enough to begin to turn the tide, or will the liberal left cram this bill through Congress despite the will of the American people? This problem remains on the cusp at this moment.
A lot will depend on how the town halls go. Even in dissent, we must get the message across that this smells to high heaven, and must be changed. We must do this respectfully, however, and leave the thuggery to the union goons that Pelosi has called on to man the chairs in the halls, to minimize the criticism. Give these goons a chance, and they will show their true colors.
That alone can and should turn the tide irrevocably in the proper direction.
And that direction is towards Freedom of Choice.
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Tags: deficit, disapproval, polls, wrong way
Obama Pushes People To The Right
Jul 7, 2009 Political
Obama enjoys amazing popularity and despite all the wrong turns he enjoys a high approval rating. He is a personable man and can be quite engaging particularly for the mind numbed people who listen to the words but don’t understand what they mean. In other words, typical Obama followers.
Though I might add that some people give him high marks even as they are beginning to worry more about him each day. The NYT released an article about his radical Columbia days and the White House press corps has begun to zap him with stinging questions while Press Secretary Gibbs is beaten to death on a daily basis. The natives are getting restless.
Yes, they are restless because Obama promised them change and everything he has done has not lived up to the promises he and VP Biden made. It now seems that they are admitting, on a weekly basis, that they were wrong about one thing or another. Obama likes to say things over and over so that they become believed but now it looks like fewer folks are relating to his philosophy even as they give him high approval ratings. My friend Don Surber reports on a recent Gallup Poll and more people are moving to the right since the election.
Gallup: 39% say they have grown more conservative since Election Day.
Another 18% say they are more liberal.
But wait. There’s more.
Among independents, 37% said they are more conservative now that President Obama is actually president, while 19% say more liberal.
Among Democrats, 34% say they are growing more conservative under President Obama, while 23% say they are more liberal.
Among other findings, 52% now say the government has too much power, versus 42% just 5 years ago.
It would appear as if people are seeing through the magic of Hope and Change and realizing the radical path Obama has set for the country and they do not like it. More than half say the government has too much power (and Obama is reaching for more with health care and cap and trade) and 34% of Democrats claim to be more conservative since Obama took office.
These are amazing numbers and if this trend continues 2010 will be a good year for Republicans, provided we can field good, conservative candidates. If this keeps up we might be able to gain some seats in the House (regaining it would be tough) and we might have a shot at the Senate. I would like to get back enough seats to keep the filibuster but I also want to see John McCain and and a few other RINOs sent packing. We need new young talent (and I am not opposed to new young Democrats so long as they come with new ideas) so that we can get rid of the establishment politicians.
Obama might be helping with that and if he keeps it up he will do for us what Jimmy Carter did. Carter gave us Reagan. If we can field a true conservative Obama will be a one term wonder and give us a great replacement.
The trends are going our way but it is still early. Looks good for Fox though. Their viewership is up 33% since the election. People are wising up and looking for fair and balanced, not moronic one sided rants by the likes of Olberman.
Reality is setting in and though Obama still has the luster and there are people who just want to give him a little longer (give him a chance) he is pushing people to the right. He is out of his league and it shows.
Or as Surber puts it:
“Last year, he was change and hope. This year, he is reality.”
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Tags: Conservatives, don surber, gallup, hope and change, Obama, polls